Only two No. 12 seeds and one No. 11 seed pulled out first-round upsets in the NCAA tournament last year, a low number compared with recent years when some Nos. 13, 14, 15 and even a 16 seed advanced.
Will 2026 be more chaotic and bring the madness back to March?
Men's Bracket Challenge Game entries are big on No. 11 South Florida, as the Bulls face No. 6 Louisville in the first round. The Cardinals will be without star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. for the game. South Florida is picked to advance on 42.14 percent of brackets — a number that rose throughout the week. On Monday, the Bulls were picked on 35.7 percent. But as brackets locked, South Florida got only more popular to become the top upset pick.
After South Florida, No. 12 Akron is next at 35.8 percent. The Zips are in the tournament for the third consecutive year and take on No. 5 Texas Tech, another team dealing with injuries.
The Bulls, Zips and No. 11 VCU (32.90) are the only three upset picks winning on at least 30 percent of brackets. That's a big drop from last year, when nine teams were upset winners on at least 30 percent of entries. In general, upset picks are down across the board from 2025 and its Cinderella-free tournament.
Here's how the upset percentages break down by each seed line:
16 vs. 1
| MATCHUP | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 16 LIU vs. No. 1 Arizona | 3.57 |
| No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 Michigan | 2.59 |
| No. 16 Siena vs. No. 1 Duke | 2.10 |
| No. 16 Prairie View A&M vs. No. 1 Florida | 1.93 |
LIU places as the second-most popular 16 seed since we started tracking pick data in 2014, behind only 2024 Longwood. The four 16 seeds are the four least-picked upsets in the tournament. That makes sense, as 16 seeds are only 2-158 all-time against top seeds.
15 vs. 2
| MATCHUP | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 15 Tennessee State vs. No. 2 Iowa State | 5.42 |
| No. 15 Queens vs. No. 2 Purdue | 4.42 |
| No. 15 Idaho vs. No. 2 Houston | 3.90 |
| No. 15 Furman vs. No. 2 UConn | 3.73 |
For reference, No. 15 Western Kentucky in 2024 is the most-picked 15 seed at 8.42 percent against No. 2 Marquette. While no one approaches that mark this year, there was a three-year streak of a 15 beating a 2 from 2021 through 2023, so these upsets can happen.
14 vs. 3
| MATCHUP | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 14 Penn vs. No. 3 Illinois | 8.79 |
| No. 14 North Dakota State vs. No. 3 Michigan State | 6.71 |
| No. 14 Wright State vs. No. 3 Virginia | 5.99 |
| No. 14 Kennesaw State vs. No. 3 Gonzaga | 5.09 |
Two 14 seeds topped 10 percent last year, as Penn's leading 8.79 percent this year would have ranked third in 2025 on this seed line. The Quakers stunned the Ivy's top seed, Yale, in the tournament final, with TJ Power scoring 44 points with 14 rebounds to secure the automatic bid. The Ivy has had recent success in March Madness with 2023 Princeton making the Sweet 16 as a 15 seed and No. 13 Yale upsetting Auburn in 2024.
13 vs. 4
| MATCHUP | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 13 Troy vs. No. 4 Nebraska | 13.48 |
| No. 13 Hofstra vs. No. 4 Alabama | 10.91 |
| No. 13 Hawai'i vs. No. 4 Arkansas | 7.73 |
| No. 13 Cal Baptist vs. No. 4 Kansas | 7.54 |
Here's where the drop in percentages year over year really becomes notable. Two 13 seeds hit 30 percent last year (High Point and Yale). In fact, Troy's 13.48 percent may top the list this year, but it would have been the least-picked in 2025.
12 vs. 5
| MATCHUP | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech | 35.80 |
| No. 12 High Point vs. No. 5 Wisconsin | 29.49 |
| No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt | 20.45 |
| No. 12 UNI vs. No. 5 St. John's | 12.03 |
Everyone loves the 12-over-5 upset. Even in last year's mostly chalk bracket, No. 12 seeds McNeese and Colorado State won. The Zips are the top choice this year as the program looks to get its first NCAA tournament win (0-7).
11 vs. 6
| MATCHUP | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville | 42.14 |
| No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 North Carolina | 32.90 |
| No. 11 Miami (Ohio) vs. No. 6 Tennessee | 24.99 |
| No. 11 Texas vs. No. 6 BYU | 23.12 |
Drake, which won as an 11 seed last year, was the most popular upset choice in 2025 at 44.27 percent. South Florida didn't get that high, but the Bulls' 42.14 percent is strong enough to lead the 11-16 seeds. At least one No. 11 seed has won in March Madness every year since 2005.
