The door is open to Indianapolis and the Final Four. Only thing is, a lot of people are trying to squeeze through it.
Each has its own barriers to break down, so here are 16 teams, and 16 what-ifs. What two victories would mean this weekend, from A to T. In this case, Alabama to Texas.
What if Alabama wins...
The Tide waited through 85 NCAA tournaments to finally get to the Final Four, but this would be twice in three years. Wonder if that could make up for the football team losing a playoff game by five touchdowns to Indiana?
It would also put an incendiary device in Lucas Oil Stadium. Alabama leads the nation in scoring and has hit 100 in eight games and 90 in 22 games, including both the first and second rounds. Not that a hyperactive scoreboard necessarily gets a team to the podium. Only two national scoring leaders ended up champions in the past 62 years — Villanova in 2018 and North Carolina in 2005.
👉 Check out the 2026 March Madness NCAA tournament men's bracket
What if Arizona wins...
Tommy Lloyd becomes the only man to take Arizona to the Final Four not named Lute Olson. Can 2001 really be the last time the Wildcats showed up at the event? They’ve had this close-only-counts-in-horseshoes thing going since then, playing in five Elite Eights and losing them all.
Their survival would keep the left side of the nation in the game. The Wildcats are the only team still around from west of Austin, Tex. And with players on the roster from the Netherlands, Australia, Germany, England, Lithuania, Senegal, South Sudan and France, that ought to help the Final Four international TV ratings.
What if Arkansas wins...
Besides the fact the Razorbacks would be seeing their first Final Four in 31 years? There’s this: Massachusetts...Memphis...Kentucky. Yep, this would make four different schools in the Final Four for John Calipari, an historical first. Rick Pitino could get there this weekend, too, but Arkansas’ regional championship would be a day earlier than St. John’s, so Calipari has a chance to be Neil Armstrong to Pitino’s Buzz Aldrin.
For Calipari, it would also be a lonnnnnng way from having his Kentucky era end by losing in the first round to Oakland in 2024. Given how the Wildcats just took their worst March Madness loss in a half-century, what would Big Blue Nation think about all this?
What if UConn wins...
The record book has a stern warning. Give UConn an inch with a Final Four berth and the Huskies go all hoggish and take everything. They’re 12-1 in their seven Final Fours. It took Tom Izzo and Michigan State playing a Final Four game in downtown Detroit for the one blemish.
This would be three Final Fours in four years and eight in 27 tournaments. The UConn women would probably like the company.
What if Duke wins...
Two years in a row, two different freshman phenoms. Yeah, that’d qualify as a trend. Only this one comes with his brother.
It would get the Blue Devils closer to completing at least one thing on the to-do list. Duke has played in a national championship game in every decade since the 1960s. But so far not in the 2020s.
One other trend to note if the Blue Devils make it through. Three of Mike Krzyzewski’s five national championships were won in Indianapolis. Where’s this Final Four again?
What if Houston wins...
Since the South regional is under three miles from campus, the Cougars wouldn’t have a long drive back home to celebrate. And since Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska make up the rest of the field, they could declare themselves the new Big Ten champions.
Houston in the Final Four is a movie we’ve seen before. Seven times. Should the Cougars make it eight, their program would be in the top-10 for most appearances, but there’s one tiny detail in fine print. The other nine have combined to win 45 national championships and Houston is still waiting.
It’s been a long journey. Well, the journey won’t be all that long this weekend.
🔥 ROADS TO SWEET 16: Buzzer-beaters, blowouts and historic feats
What if Illinois wins...
First off, it means the Illini will have beaten Houston Thursday night, which would be a real buzz kill for the locals crowding in to see their Cougars in almost a home game.
The issue is not that the Illini are without Final Four pedigree. The program has been there five times. The issue is that three of the five came by 1952. There have been only two in the 73 years since — the last 2005 — which seems surprising for a team that is often seen hanging around the top of the Big Ten.
What if Iowa wins...
The last time Hawkeye fans were this excited by the NCAA Tournament, Caitlin Clark was taking the 3-pointers. Now it’s Alvaro Folgueiras.
A Final Four trip would be a stunning feat for a team that was a No. 9 seed — and that was in the Big Ten tournament. No. 9 in the NCAA Tournament, too. It would be the Hawkeyes’ first Final Four in 46 long years, back to 1980 when the event was — wouldn’t this be odd — in Indianapolis. It would also make Ben McCollum the 16th man to take a school to the Final Four in his first season as coach, but only the second in 28 years, with North Carolina’s Hubert Davis.
One other thing. It would mean another week of no rest for Bennett Stirtz, who won’t get any so long as the Hawkeyes keep going. In 685 minutes of playing time over the past 17 games, Stirtz has been out for exactly 7:58.
What if Iowa State wins...
The Cyclones' only other Final Four was 1944, and consider what that was like.
World War II raged on and nine of the players were in training with the Navy. There was a rule they couldn’t be away from Ames for more than 48 hours in case of an emergency call-up. So how could they be heading off to Kansas City for the NCAA tournament?
It looked for a while as if the school would have to decline its spot but entreaties were made and someone granted dispensation. Iowa State defeated Pepperdine to get to the Final Four but lost to Utah and the Cyclones headed back to campus to resume training. The program hasn’t been back in the 81 years since.
What if Michigan wins...
Dusty May could put this Final Four trip next to his one from Florida Atlantic in 2023. Two programs separated by about four light years in national profile, not to mention Fahrenheit scale in January.
It would give the Wolverines a chance to get back and fix that national championship game record of theirs. They’re 1-6, and the one victory had to be saved in the final three seconds of overtime. But they don’t lose to just anybody — John Wooden, Bob Knight, Mike Krzyzewski Dean Smith, Rick Pitino and Jay Wright.
A Michigan spot in Indianapolis would also be testimony to that very 2026ish skill, deft use of the portal. Let Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz, whose team was the latest speed bump the Wolverines sped over, explain. “It's an intelligently constructed roster. Obviously Michigan has — a lot of those teams do — great NIL, but you see a lot of teams that are poorly constructed that pay a lot of money for their teams. Dusty's teams, the pieces really fit well together.”
🚨 Folgueiras, Iowa stun defending national champions No. 1 Florida
What if Michigan State wins...
And now, the list of coaches who have won national championships for Big Ten teams in the past 36 years.
Tom Izzo.
Any other questions?
He’s it, and that was back in 2000 when the century was young and so was he. This would be Final Four No. 9 for Izzo — joining Roy Williams as No. 4 on the all-time list — and he feels blessed about the total, but grouses a bit when he starts talking about not winning more often once he’s gotten there.
There would be two obvious things to count if the Spartans are in Indianapolis. Assists by Jeremy Fears Jr. and the number of times Izzo is asked his views on NIL and the portal.
What if Nebraska wins...
This would be one of the more extraordinary runs in recent March history, going from zero tournament wins all-time to the Final Four in just over two weeks. The longer this goes on, the more the basketball Cornhuskers look like Indiana football.
One can imagine the arrival of battalions of Nebraska fans in downtown Indianapolis. They would go to Pluto — and last week Oklahoma City — to support their Cornhuskers. Indianapolis is 600 miles from Lincoln. Piece of cake.
What if Purdue wins...
The Boilermakers in a Final Four in Indianapolis, 66 miles from Mackey Arena? It’s not the Houston Cougars able to skateboard to the South regional but it’s pretty close. And it’s happened before. That was 1980, when they lost to UCLA in the semifinals. They did beat Iowa in the third place game, but don’t spend a lot of time looking for that trophy in Mackey.
Getting to this Final Four would offer blanket validation to several features of the Purdue program. One would be Matt Painter’s insistence on relying on homegrown troops. The other would be the achievement of the Braden Smith-Fletcher Loyer-Trey Kaufman-Renn era. They will have gotten there with Zach Edey and without him.
What if St. John’s wins...
It means the Red Storm will have beaten Duke. After Christian Laettner in 1992, Pitino might have the urge to cut down the nets just for that.
Curious thing about this program. The Red Storm have undeniably deep tradition and get to play a lot of their home games in Madison Square Garden, but there are only two Final Four trips to show, and the last one was 1985. This would correct that imbalance.
It also would make Pitino the first coach to take four programs to the Final Four, if Calipari hasn’t beaten him to it. It’s an amazing feat. More amazing is that it would come 39 years after his first one at Providence.
‼️ Dylan Darling sends St. John's to the Sweet 16 with buzzer-beater
What if Tennessee wins...
If they ever hand out a trophy for most accomplished college basketball program without a Final Four, the Vols would be at the front of the line, or at least standing next to BYU. They’d love to be disqualified for that by the end of the weekend. This is Tennessee’s 28th NCAA tournament and Iowa State Friday will be their 62nd tournament game. They’ve been trying a while.
Rick Barnes is 71 and the more 70-something coaches who make it through this weekend — Pitino, Izzo, Kelvin Sampson — the greater the chance we see the oldest national championship coach ever in two weeks. Right now it’s Jim Calhoun at 68.
What if Texas wins...
Do you believe in miracles? OK, hold it. Texas will never be confused for the little engine that could. Given its resources, and university size, the Longhorns seem about as much an underdog story as a cobra. But the numbers are what the numbers are. They’re an 11-seed from the First Four and that would match the lowest seed ever to get to a Final Four.
So move over Loyola, VCU and George Mason. And try not to giggle.
